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How will you be getting around in 2030? It depends on where you live.

There won’t be much of a shift away from private vehicles in North America over the coming decade—largely because there aren’t many incentives for drivers to change their behavior. But Europeans may ditch private vehicles for robo-shuttles and robo-taxis, and in Greater China, people may increasingly change to bus and rail.

Comparing large global cities highlights significant differences in expected regional mode-share shifts through 2030. (chart)

Comparing large global cities highlights significant differences in expected regional mode-share shifts through 2030.

Passenger miles traveled, by city archetype,1 %
  North America - Car-reliant major cities Europe - Western metropolitan areas East Asia4 - Metropolitan areas South America - Southern Cone cities Greater China5 - Tier-1 cities South Asia - Metropolitan areas
  2019 2030 2019 2030 2019 2030 2019 2030 2019 2030 2019 2030
Private vehicles 92.1 88.4 45.3 10.3 35.3 22.5 31.3 16.8 29.9 13.1 3.3 0.7
Taxi or e-hailing 1.6 1.6 5.1 3.3 3 3.5 0.9 1.6 6.1 5.8 0.9 0.3
New modes2 0 6.1 0 33.6 0 5.1 0 3.7 0 7 0 0.4
Public transit (bus) 3.9 1.4 16.8 13.1 10.8 10.1 33 39.3 22.2 22.2 10.3 12.1
Public transit (rail) 0.7 0.5 19.6 22.4 42.1 46.7 21.5 22.7 34.6 39.7 79.9 80
Shared micromobility 0.2 1 0.2 2.8 0.2 3.7 0.2 4.7 1.6 6.6 0.9 3.7
Other3 1.5 1 13 14.5 8.6 8.4 13.1 11.2 5.6 5.6 4.7 2.8
Sample drivers

Car-based infrastructure limits disruptions

AVs6 disrupt transit usage in city centers

Street redesigns cut congestion and car usage

Reliable, high-quality transit withstands disruption

Shared AVs are widely available but sparingly used

AV shuttles penetrate taxi/bus networks

Cycle paths and regulations limiting cars reduce congestion

Public transit gets large investments

Robotaxis see limited use because of lower-income residents

AVs struggle to operate in chaotic streets

Crowded rail networks are most used

Notes

1Policy-guided shift to pooled autonomous-vehicle and transit scenario.

2New modes include roboshuttles, as well as pooled and unpooled robotaxis.

3"Other" includes walking, biking, private micromobility, 2- and 3-wheelers.

4Utilizes Japan city archetype for Tokyo.

5Greater China encompasses mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

6Autonomous vehicles.

Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility

McKinsey & Company

To read the article, see “From no mobility to future mobility: Where COVID-19 has accelerated change,” December 15, 2020.