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High-risk Americans could all be vaccinated by mid-2021

Moderna and Pfizer–BioNTech are expected to deliver sufficient COVID-19-vaccine doses to inoculate all high-risk Americans, including healthcare personnel, frontline workers, and long-term-care-facility residents, in the first half of 2021. Additionally, other COVID-19 vaccines, including those approved in other markets (for example, the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine), are likely to become available.

In the United States, doses committed by Pfizer and Moderna by July 31, 2021 are approximately enough for population in phases 1a–c (chart)

In the United States, doses committed by Pfizer and Moderna by July 31 are approximately enough for population in phases 1a–c.

Estimate of supply needed, doses1 for US population in phases 1 and 24

  • 48 million for phase 1a
  • 98 million for phase 1b
  • 56 million for phase 1c: ages 65–74 (through 3/31/21)
  • 202 million for phase 1c: other (4/1/21–7/31/21)
  • ~160 million for phase 2 (2021 Q3/4)
  • Total ~560 million

Estimate of supply available

Delivery deadlines for vaccines with Emergency Use Authorization in the United States, millions of doses1 (illustrative)
Company By 3/31/21 Between 4/1/21 and 6/30/21 Between 7/1/21 and 7/31/21 Total by 7/31/21 2021 Q3/4
Pfizer 100 70 30 200
Moderna 100 100 200
Total of Pfizer and Moderna 200 170 30 400
Potential AstraZeneca, J&J, and Novavax doses2 unspecified additional number
Options to purchase3 300 Pfizer, 400 Moderna

Notes

1Two doses needed per person.

2Subject to regulatory authorization.

3Timing not specified.

4According to CDC ACIP interim recommendations (December 22, 2020), will vary as individual states are making their own decisions (CDC phase 1a = healthcare personnel, long-term care facility residents; CDC phase 1b = frontline essential workers, persons aged ≥75 years; CDC phase 1c = persons aged 65–74 years; persons aged 16–64 years with high-risk medical conditions; essential workers not recommended for vaccination in phase 1b); phase 2 estimate based on 2019 census population estimate of persons aged ≥16, less population accounted for in CDC estimates of persons covered in phases 1a–c; CDC and Operation Warp Speed vaccination guidelines may evolve over time.

Source: Bloomberg; DC; HHS; Moderna; Pfizer; Reuters; WSJ

McKinsey & Company

To read the article, see “When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?,” January 20, 2021.