Chapter 1: Energy demand set to rebound after short lull
Since GDP is the most important driver of energy demand and the trajectory of world economic growth is exceedingly uncertain, the report presents several scenarios for energy-demand growth to give a feel for the range of outcomes possible. It examines energy-demand growth across end-use sectors and regions and by fuel type.
Chapter 2: Liquids-demand tightness could return between 2010 and 2013
Liquids demand will be stagnant in the short term due to impact of high prices in 2007 and the credit squeeze. MGI’s moderate case projects that liquids demand will grow only weakly by 0.4 percent in 2009 but will rebound in 2010 to post growth of 2.1 percent.
The light-duty vehicles sector accounts for about 70 percent of the total road-transport sector, which is crucial to gaining an understanding the evolution of petroleum. MGI finds that energy demand from light vehicles is set to grow at 1.9 per annum to 2020. Adding to energy demand is extremely rapid growth in the vehicle stock in China, the Middle East, and India. However, robust new-vehicle efficiency standards—particularly but not exclusively in developed countries—offset this trend.
Trucks
Truck transport accounted for 4.5 percent of 2006 global demand. However, because the sector’s energy-demand growth will be more rapid than the increase in energy demand overall, its share of the total will rise to 4.9 percent of global demand in 2020. Although this is a small fraction of total energy demand, the truck-transport sector is important as a large source of petroleum demand, particularly diesel.
Air transport
Air transport accounted for 2.0 percent of global demand in 2006 but, as the fastest-growing energy end-use sector, will see its energy demand grow to 2.4 percent of global demand in 2020. While air transport accounts for a very small share of the world’s total energy demand, it nevertheless bears analysis because this sector is a rapidly growing source of demand for petroleum.
Buildings
The buildings sector, comprised of residential and commercial buildings, represented 31 percent of global end-use energy demand in 2006—making it the single-largest energy-consuming sector—and 9 percent of global petroleum demand (8 million barrels per day). MGI projects that these shares will remain steady at 31 percent of energy demand.
Industrial
The industrial sector, comprised of industries such as steelmaking, chemicals, and pulp and paper production, represented 51 percent of global energy demand in 2006 and 29 percent of global petroleum demand. The industrial sector is expected to grow at 2.1 percent a year—equal to the overall rate of energy-demand growth across sectors—and continue to account for 51 percent of global energy demand in 2020.
Power
MGI examines primary energy demand from the power sector, which is the sum of power losses from power generation and final electricity demand by end-use sectors. Primary energy from the power sector is today the largest source of primary-energy use, as well as CO2 emissions. The power sector's primary demand represented 35 percent of global energy demand in 2006. The power sector's primary demand accounted for five million barrels a day or 6 percent of global petroleum demand in 2006. MGI projects it will decline to four million barrels a day or 4 percent of petroleum demand by 2020.
Fueling sustainable development: The energy productivity solution By choosing more energy-efficient cars and appliances, improving insulation in buildings, and selecting lower-energy-consuming lighting and production technologies, developing countries could cut their annual energy-demand growth by more than half from 3.4 to 1.4 percent over the next 12 years. This would leave energy consumption some 22 percent lower than it would otherwise have been—an abatement equivalent to the entire energy consumption of China today. Read more
Capturing the European energy productivity opportunity With energy-efficiency standards in Europe set higher than in many other regions, European companies are in a strong position to make large energy-cost savings and innovate lucrative new markets in energy-efficient technologies and services, attracting worldwide demand. If policy makers and business engage fully in boosting energy efficiency, Europe could hold energy demand at today's level instead of seeing it grow 1.2 percent annually. Read more
The carbon productivity challenge: Curbing climate change and sustaining economic growth Meeting commonly discussed greenhouse gas abatement paths by 2025 while maintaining economic growth will require a tenfold increase in "carbon productivity," the amount of GDP produced per unit of carbon equivalents emitted. The macroeconomic costs of this "carbon revolution" are likely to be manageable. Read more
The case for investing in energy productivity Additional annual investments in energy productivity of $170 billion through 2020 could cut global energy demand growth by at least half while generating average internal rates of return of 17 percent. Such outlays would also achieve significant energy savings and cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Read more
