In the news. Rising geopolitical tensions are prompting investors to shift capital toward lower-risk opportunities. According to Forbes, this environment can favor start-ups that prioritize financial discipline and self-sufficiency over heavy reliance on venture funding. Many of today’s strongest companies delayed or minimized soliciting venture capital early, focusing instead on internal resilience and organic growth. That focus may matter more than speed and scale for entrepreneurs navigating volatile markets. [Forbes]

“Ultimately, harnessing geopolitical insights to guide strategy rests on three imperatives: assessing the business at a granular level, identifying its vulnerabilities, and recognizing which opportunities genuinely matter.”

On McKinsey.com. Geopolitical volatility means leaders must quickly detect and interpret subtle signals about market trends, write Mark Sedwill, a chairman of geopolitical advisory at Rothschild & Co and a member of McKinsey’s Geopolitics Advisory Council, Ziad Haider, a McKinsey partner, and their coauthor. Organizations that systematically integrate geopolitical intelligence—from data, analytics, experts, and scenario planning—into decision-making can strengthen resilience and identify opportunities competitors may overlook.

Turn geopolitical insights into strategy

In the news. The CIO’s mandate is shifting from delivering technology to ensuring decision integrity, reports The National CIO Review. As organizations scale agentic AI, many are discovering that the real bottleneck isn’t technology itself—but decision governance. Autonomous systems can now act independently, but many enterprises lack guardrails: when human oversight is required, who owns risk, and how decisions transfer between machines and people. Without these frameworks, AI adoption may stall, and trust in automated systems can erode. [TNCR]

On McKinsey.com. The risk isn’t just individual AI errors—it’s systemwide failure. As McKinsey’s Rich Isenberg noted on a recent episode of The McKinsey Podcast, a single AI agent’s mistake can cascade across interconnected systems. To manage these risks, organizations need clear decision ownership, auditable controls, and strong governance frameworks that balance innovation with risk mitigation. Companies must also ensure “shadow agents” are not deployed without appropriate IT or security oversight.

Set AI guardrails

Growth slows, risks rise

In the news. US economic momentum slowed in late 2025, with fourth-quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7% from an earlier 1.4% estimate, CNBC reports. The downgrade reflects weaker consumer and government spending, weaker exports, and stronger-than-expected imports. Meanwhile, inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% year over year. Combined with rising geopolitical tensions, these events may delay expected interest rate cuts. Leaders must therefore plan for sustained cost pressures and uneven demand, rather than a quick rebound. [CNBC]

On McKinsey.com. Recent macro headwinds are making executives increasingly pessimistic, according to a new Global Survey by McKinsey Partner Arvind Govindarajan, Senior Partner Shubham Singhal, and colleagues. Respondents viewed current global conditions more negatively than they did last quarter, with 56% saying they have declined, amid rising geopolitical instability, increasing energy prices, and supply chain disruptions. To improve margins, companies can tighten scenario planning, reinforce supply chain resilience, and revisit cost structures to protect margins.

Prepare for economic volatility