McKinsey Classics | August 2019 |
When can you trust your intuition? Daniel Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics, warns not to take it at face value. Gary Klein, a prominent psychologist, argues that it often supports good decision making under high pressure.
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To some extent, they agree. First, you should distrust intuition in turbulent, unpredictable situations. (Klein, for example, says not to rely on stockbrokers to pick individual stocks.) Second, intuition isn’t trustworthy if you can’t get feedback and gain expertise. But Kahneman and Klein disagree about how to apply these principles to business strategy.
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Read our classic 2010 interview “Strategic decisions: When can you trust your gut?,” where Kahneman and Klein explore the power and perils of intuition for senior executives.
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To change your mind-set from “fear uncertainty and minimize investment” to “gain from uncertainty and maximize learning,” read our classic “The real power of real options” (2000). |
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