Beyond the pandemic: Eight charts on COVID-19 and the next phase of global economic growth

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This article was a collaborative effort by Sven SmitMartin HirtEzra GreenbergSusan LundKevin Buehler, and Arvind Govindarajan, representing views from McKinsey Global Institute and McKinsey’s Strategy & Corporate Finance and Risk & Resilience practices.

One year later, some companies seem to be nearing their pandemic objectives.
Four types of economic or public-health outcomes emerged in 2020.
Economic uncertainty is retreating to pre-COVID-19 averages.
Many countries can expect strong growth in 2021.
Since 1950, the US economy has seen two kinds of expansion.
A prosperity scenario delivers vastly more growth than the alternative.
After World War II, the United States reduced its effective debt burden through rapid growth in nominal GDP.
The prosperity scenario reduces debt burden with growth.
Beyond the pandemic: Eight charts on COVID-19 and the next phase of global economic growth

1Jamie Dimon, “Chairman & CEO letter to shareholders,” JPMorgan Chase, April 7, 2021, jpmorganchase.com.
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