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Our Insights

Report

Global gas and LNG outlook to 2035

– Expansion in the gas and LNG markets continues, with LNG demand expected to increase 3.6 percent per year to 2035.
Report

Global downstream outlook to 2035

– Perspective on global refining markets and projections to 2035.
Article

Global refining: Profiting in a downstream downturn

– Amid long-term margin declines in the global refining market, players must move quickly to adjust their portfolio strategies.
Blog Post

Monitoring refinery shutdowns for advance insight into capacity disruption

– By applying advanced analytics to high-resolution satellite images, McKinsey is able to monitor activity and shutdowns at the... biggest oil refineries in the Middle East and South and Southeast Asia in close to real time.
Blog Post

A tale of two refineries: Monitoring construction progress remotely for advance insight

– Knowing where new oil refineries are being built, and how quickly, gives industry players valuable warning of imminent capacity... additions that could affect the whole value chain
Podcast

Peak energy, peak oil, and the rise of renewables: An executive’s guide to the global energy system

– Global energy demand is headed toward a plateau over the next ten to 20 years, as the world focuses on electrification, energy... efficiency, and more service-driven economic growth.
Article

Forced boil-off gas: The future of LNG as a fuel for LNG carriers

– New limitations on sulphur emissions will require ship operators to consider alternative fuels. As a result, the use of forced... boil-off liquefied natural gas is likely to increase.
Report

North American gas outlook to 2030

– Here’s what you need to know about the North American outlook for gas demand, supply, and price to 2030.
Article

Recharging economies: The EV-battery manufacturing outlook for Europe

– As uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) increases, the EV-battery market represents an opportunity for European players. We assess... the potential and look at factors guiding the location of production capacity.
Blog Post

How satellite monitoring is shedding new light on refinery operations

– Advances in satellite monitoring provide insight into operational interruptions and maintenance activities at major refineries... to give traders a competitive edge.
Report

Offshore-drilling outlook to 2035

– Our perspective on the global offshore-drilling market offers projections to 2035.
Blog Post

How did the European natural gas market evolve in 2018?

– The European gas market has seen several shifts—driven by a milder winter, rising European LNG demand due to attractive... prices in Europe compared to Asia, and the increasing importance of Nord Stream.
Blog Post

Brazil has the potential for a 70% oil production increase by 2035—but is it likely?

– Brazil can look forward to some positive news when it comes to oil production for the next few years.
Blog Post

Helping the industry navigate the energy transition

– By 2035, global energy demand is expected to plateau, and economic growth and global energy demand will be decoupled for the first... time in history. With that in mind, how can organizations prepare?
Blog Post

Reflecting on the 2018 LNG market: 15 key insights

– This past year was significant for the global LNG market, with plenty of twists and turns, winners and losers.
Interactive

Global Energy Perspective 2019

– The Global Energy Perspective Reference Case provides our view on how the energy transition will unfold.
Blog Post

Eight shifts that would result in a much more rapid global energy transition

– We may be closer to a radical energy transition than expected, with some far-reaching developments already under way.
Article

Lubes growth opportunities remain despite switch to electric vehicles

– Lubricating oils have traditionally been one of the most attractive areas in the oil and gas value chain, but disruption is on... the horizon with the rise of electrification in the transport sector.
Blog Post

Geopolitics can lead to a hundred-dollar oil world, but can it sustain it?

– Tighter market balances have since driven Brent to around USD80/bbl, though the combination of OPEC supply and MARPOL demand disruptions... could tighten markets even more, putting further upward pressure on prices.
Article

IMO 2020 and the outlook for marine fuels

– In 2020, the global limit on sulfur content for all marine fuels will be lowered dramatically, sending shockwaves through global... refined-product markets while widening margins and differentials. Most refiners are still trying to come to grips with the potential threats and opportunities that will emerge as a result of this regulation.
Article

The impact of rising US LNG exports on global markets

– Earlier this year, the opening of Cove Point marked a turning point for US LNG exports, placing the US 5th in the 2018 export... ranking, and creating major shifts in demand, supply, and pricing dynamics.
Blog Post

Permian, we have a gas problem(s)

– The Permian is experiencing its first natural gas problem. Gas production is starting to exceed pipeline capacity exiting the... Permian, and in-basin prices are falling as a result. Paradoxically, the second problem is a potential overreaction to the first problem: market fundamentals could attract too many pipelines, and the Permian runs the risk of having underutilized pipelines.
Article

In full swing: North America’s crude prices and changing takeaway capacity

– The first half of 2018 saw crude production continuing to rise in North America. US crude exports are also on the rise, but ample... production growth and constrained takeaway capacity have combined to create a tight market with big discounts.
Article

The European electric bus market is charging ahead, but how will it develop?

– Widescale adoption of electric buses in Europe is near. There is still a lot of uncertainty around eBus battery charging strategies... and the optimal type of charging hardware, mainly related to costs and operational flexibility.
Article

Decarbonization of industrial sectors: The next frontier

– Though deep decarbonization is possible, it will require substantial investments and big changes to the energy system. Technological... breakthroughs, lower energy prices, changing consumer preferences, or new regulations will be critical to achieving this goal.
Article

The EU gas network resilience through advanced analytics

– How advanced analytics can help you understand the European gas network system response under demand and supply discontinuities.
Article

Five key questions clients ask about our energy demand outlook to 2050

– Our Global Energy Perspective summarizes our energy demand outlook to 2050. Based on client conversations we’ve had since... its release, we’re answering five key questions that give more insight into our forecast for the energy transition.
Blog Post

MARPOL 2020: An opportunity for OPEC to reclaim market share

– New MARPOL limits on sulfur content in marine fuels could result in 1-1.8MMb/d of additional refinery runs to produce higher volumes... of marine gasoil. Such additional crude demand could provide OPEC with an opportunity to reclaim market share.
Article

LNG regas terminals: Diversification the way forward

– The days of LNG terminals as simple LNG regasification facilities that only optimize availability and operational reliability... could soon be over, with an LNG hub model focused on additional value-adding services, particularly in small-scale downstream, beginning to emerge.
Article

Metal mining constraints on the electric mobility horizon

– Cobalt, nickel, and lithium demand for electric vehicle batteries is expected to boom up to 2025 and beyond. Can additional supply,... recycling, and new battery technology development keep up with demand growth or will the adoption of electric vehicles be hampered by supply constraints?
Article

What if the latest wind and solar auction results were the new reality of electricity prices?

– With ever lower auction results being reported, the question arises: what would the effect be on our power markets if the average... cost trajectory followed the auction results?
Blog Post

Diesel demand: still growing globally despite Dieselgate

– Two years after Dieselgate, the impact of the diesel emissions scandal on final demand appears to be smaller than many expected,... and has largely been offset by other demand drivers. Going forward, we expect global middle distillate demand growth to be fairly robust in the next few years.
Blog Post

US natural gas market reaction to the ‘Bomb Cyclone’

– Cold weather led to record demand and storage withdrawals which increased prices to over $100/MMbtu
Blog Post

5 key signposts that will set the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in the long term

– Our updated title="Global Oil Outlook">Global Oil Supply & Demand Outlook to 2030 explores in detail the 5 signposts that will set the cost of the marginal barrel of oil in the long term. This article provides a quick overview of each signpost, color-coded to reflect the positive or negative impact on oil prices.
Article

How US LNG may create new pricing fundamentals over the coming five years

– In 2017, the US exported 12.4 million tons of LNG, a significant increase from the 3.1 million tons of LNG export in 2016. This... rise has already begun to change the global LNG flow patterns.
Article

Proppant demand outlook for the Bakken and Permian

– North American proppant demand is up from 45 million tons in 2016 to 110 million tons in 2018. This will be beneficial for suppliers... and drive low-cost sand flooding into the Permian.
Article

Can carbon prices fire up gas demand in electricity generation?

– With governments revising their energy policies to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, carbon prices are back on the table.... What effect will carbon prices realistically have on natural gas consumption and emissions, and how will it vary over time and by location?
Article

MARPOL implications on refining and shipping markets

– Opportunities will depend on how other sectors respond.
Article

New reality: electric trucks and their implications on energy demand

– When DHL decided in 2013 that it wanted to upgrade its fleet to electric powertrains, it could not find a suitable vehicle or... an original equipment manufacturer willing to develop one. So, they decided to develop a vehicle themselves.
Article

Impact of low crude prices on refining

– The recent fall in crude oil prices has coincided with both higher and lower profitability in the downstream sector, depending... upon which region one considers. We take a look at the likely effect on the three main hubs.