In the last fifty years, Norway has accumulated an enormous oil wealth. But the Norwegian oil age is nearing an end, as demand for oil and gas is expected to decrease. In the years ahead, Norway must develop new industries to secure the future for new generations, compensate for the loss in oil revenues and create a sustainable society.
The trends and changes facing both Norway and the world primarily represent great opportunities. This report features ten opportunity industries for Norway. Norway may not become a market leader in all these industries, and there are even more opportunities than those mentioned here. But what the industries in this report have in common, and what our analyses have indicated, is their potential for substantial contribution to future employment and value creation. The opportunity industries are hydrogen, offshore wind, batteries, carbon capture and storage, green maritime industry, industrial software, consumer platforms, circularity, aquaculture and tourism.
In 2030, these ten forward-looking industries will be able to create approximately 210,000 new jobs and generate about 310 billion kroner in increased GNP, in addition to what we expect will occur “in any case” from industries that already contribute to Norwegian GDP. These 310 billion kroner equal about 70 percent of the 2020 contribution to GDP from oil and gas activities.
When analyzing the competitive landscape for the opportunity industries, it is clear there is every reason to act now. Norway has major geopolitical and natural advantages that give us, to borrow a term from Formula One racing, the “pole position” in many of these industries. Nevertheless, we spend considerable time on making decisions, whereas other countries are already accelerating at a rapid pace.
At the national level, there is a set of key areas that must change if we are to equip Norway to meet the future. This involves the right knowledge and expertise, major investments in infrastructure development, the facilitation of investments and incentives, and specific objectives and strategies in each field.
Whereas Norway’s export income has previously been driven to a large extent by oil and fish, we must now assert ourselves in many other disciplines in tough global competition. Therefore, the Norwegian industries of the future depend on making wise choices here at home in order to succeed abroad.
If we are to succeed tomorrow, we must make wise decisions today. This report is our contribution to good decisions today, for Norway tomorrow.