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Snapshot of global oil supply and demand: October 2022

Our dashboard explores key short-term signposts impacting oil demand, supply, and prices.

The announcement of upcoming OPEC+ supply cuts and the end of the US SPR crude oil release contributed to the average Brent crude oil spot price increasing slightly to USD93/bbl in October, while the uncertain macroeconomic environment and limited spare capacity are expected to keep the market tight and volatile. Fluctuations in short-term signposts compared to the prior month include:

  • Oil prices. The average Brent crude oil spot price increased slightly to USD93/bbl in October from USD90/bbl in September. This is driven partly by the announcement of upcoming OPEC+ supply cuts, the end of the US SPR crude oil release
  • Global oil demand. Global liquids demand declined in October to 99.6 MMb/d, a drop of 0.5 MMb/d m-o-m. China witnessed a significant drop in demand—around 0.9 MMb/d m-o-m driven partly by renewed COVID-19 lockdowns. Demand in the US saw an uptick of ~0.4 MMb/d m-o-m
  • OPEC 10 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 10 production decreased by ~ 0.4 MMb/d in October to 30.4 MMb/d, 1.36 MMb/d below the quota. The announcement on cutting production targets for OPEC+ by 2 MMb/d starting in November is expected to translate into an effective reduction of ~1 MMb/d due to 3.4 MMb/d under-production vis-à-vis existing quotas
  • Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production rose to 57.8 MMb/d in October, an increase of 0.4MMb/d m-o-m and 0.9MMb/d y-o-y
  • US shale oil production. US shale oil production increased by 0.1 MMb/d, reaching 9 MMb/d in October and remaining below pre-pandemic levels of 9.2 MMb/d. The number of active rigs in the US was down by 3 units in September m-o-m – the first such decline since Q3 2020
  • Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Combined production levels in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya showed a slight increase of 0.1 MMb/d m-o-m to 4.4 MMb/d in September. Nuclear deal negotiations with Iran remain suspended
  • Commercial inventories. Global commercial inventories declined by 14 million barrels, settling at 4.38 billion barrels—a 0.3% decrease m-o-m. Final deliveries of crude oil from the US SPR are to be delivered in December, after which commercial inventories are likely to see decline starting in 2023
  • Market sentiment. Uncertain macroeconomic environment and limited spare capacity are expected to keep market tight and volatile

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