A community’s current level of risk from COVID-19 depends, in part, on the immunity of its members. The McKinsey COVID-19 Immunity Index, a tool for understanding a community’s current level of risk, helps make a few observations. For example, analysis of immunity levels for six countries shows the emergence of Omicron during the winter of 2021–22 is visible as a sharp drop in immunity in multiple countries (since existing immunity was suddenly less effective against the new variant).
A series of six area graphs showing COVID-19 national immunity levels for six nations starting in January 2021 and ending in July 2022. Included are Australia, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The graphs are broken into three color bands. One for immunity driven by past infection of unvaccinated people, one driven by past infection of vaccinated people, and the final one driven by those who had no past infection but who had been vaccinated. Each of the graphs is generally trending upward in national immunity but the supporting levers to immunity shift and change. Australia is the closest to national immunity, clearly driven by vaccinations.
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To read the article, see “When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?,” July 28, 2022.