Although India's financial system has a number of bright
spots, it falls short on several dimensions. The system intermediates only half
of the country's total savings and investment, and it channels the majority of
funding to the least productive parts of the economy. India's dynamic private
sector receives just 43 percent of total credit, while the remaining 57 percent
of credit goes to state-owned enterprises, agriculture, and tiny businesses in the unorganized sector. This pattern of capital allocation impedes growth because these sectors are 10-50 percent as productive as the private corporate sector.
MGI found that Indian banks amounted to just 61 percent
of deposits, a much smaller fraction than banks in other countries, suggesting
that they could play a far greater role in driving growth. In addition, the
value of India's corporate bond market amounts to just 2 percent of GDP.
Moreover, Indian companies pay significantly higher interest rates in every sector of the economy than Chinese or U.S. companies.
These shortcomings, along with others documented in the
report, impose a heavy cost on India's economy. MGI calculates that an
integrated program of financial system reforms could free up $48 billion of
capital per year, equivalent to 7 percent of GDP. Even more important, these reforms would raise real GDP growth to 9.4 percent a year. This would increase household incomes 30 percent above current projections by 2014, lifting millions more households out of poverty.
The report offers a roadmap of reforms to capture this opportunity, makes the case for significantly more liberalization of the financial sector, and discusses the political challenges of such liberalization.
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