Uncertain times call for new strategies. So says Hugh Courtney, author of 20/20 Foresight, in introducing a new method for managing risk and maximizing opportunity during periods of high uncertainty.

The book, an outgrowth of the McKinsey's "Strategy Theory Initiative" (STI), urges managers to discard the traditional "one-size-fits-all" notion of strategic planning. Managers also need to avoid knee-jerk responses to uncertainty. Faced with an unclear future, Courtney argues, most managers either ignore possible undesired outcomes or try to evaluate them in excruciating detail.

The more effective approach, he contends, is to classify the level of uncertainty – for example, a relatively clear future, a range of possibilities, or true ambiguity – and craft a strategy based on that classification. Courtney also details how executives can quantify the level of "residual uncertainty" – the unknowns that remain after all the analysis has been done – in a given situation.

Once the level of uncertainty has been identified, the book explains how managers can adapt the five central strategic planning questions to fit their situation. Those questions are: whether to shape or adapt, whether to make a move now or later, whether to focus or diversify, whether to adopt new tools and frameworks, and whether to implement new strategic planning and decision making processes.

20/20 Foresight also:

	Shows strategists how to tailor the decision-making process – from formulation to implementation – to the level of uncertainty they face.
	Describes the processes executives can use to monitor and revise strategies as necessary in volatile markets.
	Provides a toolkit for developing, and testing new strategic options – including guidelines for applying the right tool to the right situation.