Dangerous Markets presents views about how to anticipate, manage, and prosper in financial crises. Many of these views go against conventional wisdom.
Part I. Understanding financial crises
We begin with the review of the frequency, duration, and costs of financial crises, which is measured in trillions of USD. These gigantic costs fall into the following categories: direct, immediate costs of a crisis, which are almost always borne by taxpayers; indirect opportunity costs such as asset repricing in both the financial and real economy; unemployment and underemployment; forgone business investments, personal savings, and consumption. We then describe how a financial storm builds up and then breaks upon a nation’s economic landscape.
Part II. Earning the right to win
There are five tactical measures that executives need to execute successfully in the first 100 days of a crisis: understand and maximize the company's cash position; identify and minimize operational risk; execute based on rigorous scenario planning; review the company's business performance thoroughly; have bold leadership, vision, and strategy.
Part III. Managing unique banking risks
We explore why bank turnarounds, which are commonly needed after a financial crisis, are huge change management efforts focused on the basic building blocks of superb risk management, organizational efficiency, and operational excellence. Turnaround situations are basic nuts and bolts exercises.
Part IV. Building for the future
We argue that crisis in fact affords individual companies and firms with opportunities to reset their financial policy environments. Standards and safeguards can be strengthened along all three levels of a comprehensive crisis prevention safety net - self governance, market supervision, and government regulation – which we believe is essential to protect economies from crises.