The invasion of Ukraine has sparked an increase in defense spending among many European and NATO countries. Senior partner Olivia White and colleagues find that countries closest to Russia and Ukraine, such as Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania, show the steepest rise. In addition, some NATO countries that are less proximate have announced plans to meet the defense-spending target of 2 percent of GDP over a longer timeline.
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Three bar charts show estimated defense spending as a percentage of GDP by NATO countries. The 3 charts represent countries bordering Russia or Ukraine, other former Eastern bloc countries, and other NATO countries. The first chart, countries bordering Russia or Ukraine, shows fulfillment of or advancement beyond the NATO target of 2% of national GDP for spending in 2023. The second chart, former Eastern bloc countries, shows an overall lag in reaching that NATO target but with a push above the planned 2021 spending targets, close to the NATO 2023 target. The third chart, other NATO countries, shows a mix of lagging behind and advancing beyond the NATO 2023 target, with many still behind the 2021 commitment.
Footnote: In May 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Sweden submitted an official letter of application to join the NATO alliance. Sweden is an official NATO invitee. At its summit in July 2023, NATO said that “it looks forward to welcoming Sweden as a full member of the Alliance.”
Source: Data are taken from Florian Dorn, Niklas Potrafke, and Marcel Schlepper, “NATO defense spending in 2023: Implications one year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” EconPol policy brief, May 2023; McKinsey analysis.
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To read the article, see “War in Ukraine: Twelve disruptions changing the world—update,” July 28, 2023.