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Climate Change Special Initiative - Greenhouse gas abatement cost curves

What will a significant reduction in the level of greenhouse gases entail? Which approaches will be most effective, and how much will it cost to achieve this goal?

To get a better understanding of the ways to cut emissions, the cost of each, and the reductions they could achieve—in other words, to provide facts for the debate—McKinsey has undertaken a multiyear research initiative to map the opportunities to reduce (or abate) greenhouse gas emissions. In 2007, we completed a broad-based global study. More recently, we have taken a focused look at what can be done at a national level in a number of different countries. We developed these for the U.S., U.K., Germany, Australia, Netherlands, and Sweden, and are currently developing cost curves in a dozen other countries, including several emerging markets (e.g., India, China, Brazil). In each case, we collaborated with leading companies, academics, industry associations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to assemble the best available data on abatement measures. The full reports for each can be found below:

Greenhouse gas abatement potential in Poland
December 2009
All countries are looking into how to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Poland has significant potential to reduce its emissions, but seizing this potential will be a challenge. Fast and decisive action will be needed to realize this opportunity.
Download the English summary (PDF - 504 KB )
Pathways to an energy- and carbon-efficient Russia
December 2009
With energy-efficiency measures, Russia can grow GDP up to 6 percent per annum with no increase in energy consumption or carbon emissions. The report shows that by 2030 Russia could cut its energy usage by 23 percent and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 19 percent by implementing 60 economically attractive efficiency measures. At the same time, Russia could achieve its GDP growth aspirations while remaining at its current levels of energy consumption and emissions.
Download in English: Summary (PDF - 684 KB) or Full report (PDF - 2.39 MB)
Download in Russian: Summary (PDF - 524 KB) or Full report (PDF - 2.55 MB)
Greenhouse gas abatement potential in Israel
November 2009
Israel's overall GHG emission abatement potential is limited in comparison to that of other countries. This study identifies technical and behavioral abatement measures that could reduce Israel's expected doubling of GHG emissions by 2030 by almost three-quarters. The total net cost to the economy of implementing all technical measures would be approximately zero in 2030, but it requires action by all constituencies.
Download executive summary (English) (PDF - 176 KB)
Read the report (Hebrew) (PDF - 912 KB)
Pathways to world-class energy efficiency in Belgium
April 2009
The report, prepared in collaboration with the Federation of Enterprises in Belgium (FEB-VBO) and built on McKinsey's global and national GHG-abatement cost curves, identifies theoretical energy savings potential in Belgium representing 29 percent of the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario or 105 million boe.
Download this report summary (PDF - 788 KB)
Download this report (PDF - 2.11 MB)
Pathways to a low-carbon economy for Brazil
March 2009
Brazil has the potential to play a leading role in addressing climate change.
Download this report (PDF - 3.15 MB)
China's green revolution: Prioritizing technologies to achieve energy and environmental sustainability
February 2009
Technologies commercially available today could help China to reduce its projected oil imports by up to 30 to 40 percent, cut demand for coal by 40 percent, and reduce greenhouse gases by up to 50 percent in 2030.
Launch this article (PDF - 4.64 MB)
Pathways to a low-carbon economy
January 2009
Version 2 of the global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve
It is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by enough to contain global warming to two degrees Celsius, but only if all major regions and sectors take ambitious action within the next few years.
Read more
Swiss greenhouse gas abatement cost curve
January 2009
Switzerland can reduce its own inland greenhouse gas emissions by up to 45 percent by the year 2030 with technical improvements in buildings, transportation, power generation, industry, and agriculture.
Launch this article (PDF - 1.07 MB)
Costs and potentials for greenhouse gas abatement in the Czech Republic
November 2008
The abatement potential and costs of emission reduction in the Czech Republic will depend on the ability to capture energy-efficiency opportunities, the choice of power mix, and the future feasibility of carbon capture and storage.
Launch this article (PDF - 1 MB)
Greenhouse gas abatement opportunities in Sweden
April 2008
Sweden already has among the lowest emissions per capita in the Western world. Over the long term, though, it still has significant options for further emission reduction.
Launch this article (PDF - 2.28 MB)
An Australian cost curve for greenhouse gas reduction
February 2008
This report provides a fact-based analysis on emission-reduction potential and the associated cost for the Australian economy. Its findings are that significant greenhouse gas reduction is achievable and affordable but requires urgent action to implement the full potential.
Launch this article (PDF - 276 KB)
Launch this article (PDF - 668 KB)
Reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions: How much at what cost?
November 2007
Starting in early 2007, a research team from McKinsey worked with leading companies, industry experts, academics, and environmental NGOs to develop a detailed, consistent fact base estimating costs and potentials of different options to reduce or prevent GHG emissions within the United States through 2030. The team analyzed more than 250 options, encompassing efficiency gains, shifts to lower-carbon energy sources, and expanded carbon sinks.
Read more
Read the executive summary (PDF - 460 KB)
Read the full report (PDF - 4.11 MB)
Launch the video presentation
Launch the slideshow (PDF - 7 MB)
Climate change: Everyone's business—options for greenhouse gas reduction in the UK
November 2007
McKinsey was commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) to produce an analysis of the options for greenhouse gas reduction in the United Kingdom. We have worked with industry experts, academics, and leading businesses, and this CBI Climate Change Task Force report shows that the United Kingdom's carbon reduction targets for 2020 are likely to be missed but that 2050 goals, while stretching, can be achieved at a manageable cost—provided a greater sense of urgency is now adopted by government, business, and consumers.
Read more on the CBI Web site
Read the executive summary (PDF - 228 KB)
Read the full report (PDF - 1.25 MB)
Appendix: McKinsey analysis (PDF - 209 KB)
Costs and potentials of greenhouse gas abatement in Germany
October 2007
Together with the German Industry Association (Bundesverband der Deutschen Industrie—BDI), McKinsey's German office developed a view on costs and potentials of greenhouse gas abatement in Germany until 2020/2030. More than 70 companies and associations were involved in assessing the different abatement levers. In sum, abatement of 30 percent (compared to 1990) seems feasible.
Read the full report (PDF - 2.99 MB)
Launch the Deep Dives - Industry (PDF - 3.54 MB)
Launch the Deep Dives - Energy (PDF - 2.5 MB)
Launch the Deep Dives - Transport (PDF - 2.33 MB)
Launch the Deep Dives - Buildings (PDF - 2.35 MB)
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