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The Coming Shakeout in the Defined Benefit Market

Throughout most of the past half century, the private-sector defined benefit pension market has been characterized by the measured, orderly, and – with all but a handful of exceptions – virtually homogeneous investment strategies of plan sponsors. Indeed, despite stark differences along such key dimensions as workforce demographics, pension funding ratios and credit ratings, the corporations controlling some $2.3 trillion in Defined Benefit (DB) assets have nonetheless pursued astonishingly similar asset allocations, with longonly equities laying claim to almost two-thirds of the typical portfolio.

For the financial firms serving this market – primarily asset managers – the result has been a long, enviable track record of rock-solid earnings performance. But for many players, that smooth ride is about to turn into a roller coaster: a huge redistribution of profits within the private-sector DB industry is now in the making, thanks to a rare intersection of accounting, regulatory and market forces that is spurring plan sponsors to overhaul their pension strategies. The addiction to equity is fast giving way to a new emphasis on risk management – rendering up for grabs, in the process, the majority of industry assets. And taking direct aim at those assets in this new risk-focused world are insurance companies, investment banks, and alternatives players.
 

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